The Future of HAPS: Visionary Outlook for 2035 and Beyond

1. The HAPS Vision for 2035

Imagine a persistent, global, stratospheric network of solar-powered aircraft and airships, each on station for months, handing off seamlessly to satellites and terrestrial towers.

By 2035, this network could:

• Deliver continuous 5G/6G coverage to every populated region.

• Provide real-time climate intelligence on greenhouse gas emissions, ice loss, and deforestation.

• Maintain persistent ISR bubbles over critical theatres without provoking satellite overflight sensitivities.

• Act as resilient back-up infrastructure during cyberattacks or terrestrial outages.

This is not science fiction—it’s the logical convergence of telecom, aerospace, defence, and environmental science trends.

2. Convergence with 5G, 6G, and NTN Ecosystems

By the late 2020s, 3GPP Release 19 will likely finalise extended non-terrestrial network (NTN) standards incorporating HAPS as a core element alongside LEO/MEO/GEO satellites.

In the 2030s, HAPS could:

• Serve as low-latency relay layers between terrestrial base stations and satellites.

• Provide edge computing nodes in the stratosphere, processing AI workloads locally to reduce backhaul congestion.

• Integrate directly into 6G architectures for holographic telepresence, ultra-reliable low-latency communications (URLLC), and massive IoT backhaul.

3. Defence and Security by Design

In future force structures, HAPS will be seen as strategic assets, not experimental platforms.

• Persistent overwatch over contested zones without the cost or vulnerability of orbital assets.

• Electronic warfare platforms in the stratosphere, enabling jamming or counter-jamming without ground presence.

• Maritime security layers across choke points and exclusive economic zones, coordinated with naval and satellite surveillance.

By 2035, expect defence–civil joint fleets, where the same HAPS infrastructure supports both national security and commercial connectivity.

4. Climate and Environmental Intelligence

HAPS could revolutionise environmental monitoring by:

• Providing continuous, high-resolution mapping of CO₂, CH₄, and other greenhouse gases at the city and industrial facility level.

• Tracking climate tipping points in near real time.

• Assisting in precision agriculture by integrating soil moisture, crop health, and pest mapping at national scales.

Because they operate persistently over specific regions, they can build data time series impossible for most satellite missions.

5. Business Model Evolution

Today’s early HAPS market is dominated by defence-led projects and pilots. By 2035:

• Expect capacity-as-a-service models, where operators sell data or bandwidth by the hour or by square kilometre of coverage.

• Public–private partnerships will become standard, with telecoms, environmental agencies, and defence ministries co-funding fleets.

• Insurance, regulation, and international standards will be mature enough to support cross-border, multi-role deployments.

6. The Roadmap from 2025 to 2035

2025–2027 – Fleet Expansion Trials

• More nations deploy 2–3 HAPS for persistent national coverage or ISR.

• Standardisation of control protocols and safety cases begins.

2028–2030 – Integrated HAPS–Satellite–Terrestrial Networks

• NTN handover between HAPS and LEO/MEO satellites becomes seamless.

• First national-scale HAPS networks operational in rural broadband role.

2030–2033 – Commercial Maturity

• Multi-customer, multi-role HAPS fleets operate profitably.

• Defence and civilian applications share airframes through modular payload bays.

2033–2035 – Strategic Infrastructure Status

• HAPS recognised as essential national infrastructure for connectivity and climate intelligence.

• Global coordination under ITU and ICAO frameworks allows cross-border persistence.

7. Strategic Actions for Leaders Today

If you want to be part of the 2035 HAPS economy, start now:

• Engage regulators early on airspace and spectrum issues.

• Pilot multi-role applications to prove ROI and resilience benefits.

• Form ecosystem partnerships—no single entity can master aerospace, telecom, and climate monitoring alone.

• Invest in autonomy and AI integration to prepare for fleet-scale operations.