Space Traffic Management: The Next Regulatory Frontier

Introduction: From Open Sky to Crowded Orbits

Space was once vast and empty. In 1957, Sputnik was the only artificial object in orbit. Today, over 7,500 active satellitescircle the Earth, with projections exceeding 60,000 by 2035 as Starlink, OneWeb, Amazon Kuiper, and Chinese constellations expand.

This explosion creates a new problem: orbital congestion. Satellites risk collision with each other, with debris, and with abandoned rocket stages. The famous 2009 Iridium–Cosmos collision created thousands of fragments, many still circling Earth today.

Without effective space traffic management (STM), orbits may become unsustainable — threatening the very services (satellite broadband, GNSS, Earth observation) that modern societies rely on.

The Core Challenges in Space Traffic Management

1. Collision Risk

• LEO is now crowded, with multiple mega-constellations.

• Even small fragments can destroy satellites on impact.

2. Orbital Debris

• Over 36,000 trackable objects larger than 10 cm, and millions of smaller ones.

• Debris removal remains expensive and politically sensitive.

3. Lack of Governance

• Outer Space Treaty (1967) offers only broad principles.

• No binding global rules on debris mitigation or STM.

4. Commercial Proliferation

• Private companies now dominate launches.

• Coordination between public regulators and private operators is inconsistent.

5. Geopolitics & Militarisation

• Nations reluctant to share orbital data for military satellites.

• Anti-satellite (ASAT) tests create additional debris clouds.

Regional Perspectives

United States

• The US leads in commercial satellite deployments (SpaceX, Amazon Kuiper).

• The Office of Space Commerce is tasked with civil space traffic coordination.

• The Space Policy Directive-3 (2018) set the framework for STM, shifting responsibility from the military to civilian agencies.

• The US military still tracks space objects via NORAD, but data sharing is limited.

Europe

• The European Space Agency (ESA) runs the Space Situational Awareness (SSA) programme.

• The EU is developing a Space Traffic Management strategy tied to its sovereignty agenda.

• IRIS², Galileo, and Copernicus satellites increase Europe’s stake in orbital sustainability.

• Regulatory debates centre on mandatory debris mitigation and collision avoidance standards.

Middle East

• Emerging space actors like the UAE and Saudi Arabia see STM as a national priority.

• The UAE Space Agency is exploring partnerships for debris monitoring.

• Middle Eastern reliance on GNSS, Earth observation, and satcom makes orbital stability critical.

• Regional collaboration with ESA and US agencies is growing, but domestic STM frameworks remain early-stage.

Towards a Framework for Orbital Governance

International Norms

• Calls for a global STM treaty akin to maritime law.

• United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (UNCOPUOS) exploring guidelines, but no binding rules yet.

National Regulations

• US, Europe, and Japan mandating post-mission disposal (deorbit within 5 years).

• Proposals to impose liability fines for debris-causing operators.

Industry Self-Regulation

• Operators increasingly share tracking data (e.g., SpaceX with ESA).

• Industry groups advocating “rules of the road” for orbital manoeuvres.

Technology Solutions

• AI-driven collision prediction using space situational awareness (SSA) data.

• Active debris removal technologies: robotic arms, drag sails, laser nudging.

• On-orbit servicing: refuelling, repositioning, and extending satellite lifetimes.

Business & Strategic Implications

1. Cost of Compliance

   • Future licensing will require compliance with STM rules.

   • Operators must budget for debris mitigation and deorbit technologies.

2. Insurance Markets

   • Space insurers increasingly price risk based on STM compliance.

   • Poor orbital behaviour could make satellites uninsurable.

3. Telecom Operator Strategies

   • Operators using LEO constellations must factor STM risk into ROI models.

   • Partnerships with debris-removal companies may become standard.

4. Sovereignty & Access

   • Nations without STM capability risk exclusion from orbital resources.

   • Regional players (UAE, Saudi Arabia) may invest in domestic SSA systems.

Board-Level Takeaways

• Strategic Risk: Orbital congestion is not just technical; it is a business continuity issue.

• Policy Engagement: Boards must engage with regulators to shape STM rules.

• Investment in Innovation: Supporting debris removal and STM technology could become a differentiator.

• Global Partnerships: Companies cannot solve STM alone — international cooperation is essential.

Conclusion

Space is becoming a crowded highway with no traffic lights. Without regulation, innovation, and cooperation, collisions and debris could render critical orbits unusable.

For telecom operators, governments, and investors, space traffic management is no longer optional — it is the next regulatory frontier that will decide who thrives in the orbital economy.