GNSS Under Threat: Why Europe, the US, and the Middle East Need Terrestrial Backups

Introduction: The Invisible Utility

Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) — GPS, Galileo, GLONASS, BeiDou — are so deeply embedded in daily life that most people never notice them. Every smartphone, ship, aircraft, and telecom network relies on precise positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT).

But GNSS is fragile. Signals arrive from satellites over 20,000 km away, weaker than a lightbulb on Earth. They are easily jammed, spoofed, or degraded. In recent years, GNSS disruption has shifted from theoretical concern to real-world threat.

• Pilots in Eastern Europe report frequent GNSS outages near conflict zones.

• Ships in the Arabian Gulf have been misdirected by spoofed coordinates.

• Telecom operators worry about timing disruptions cascading into outages.

The question is no longer whether GNSS is vulnerable — but how societies will back it up.

The Threats to GNSS

1. Jamming

• Low-cost transmitters overwhelm GNSS frequencies.

• Often deployed in conflict areas to blind drones or mislead adversaries.

• Documented incidents in Ukraine, Syria, and Eastern Mediterranean.

2. Spoofing

• False GNSS signals mislead receivers into reporting wrong positions.

• Examples: Black Sea vessels reported being “at airports” miles away.

• Growing risk for autonomous vehicles, shipping, and financial timing.

3. Geopolitical Weaponisation

• State actors deploy jamming and spoofing as part of hybrid warfare.

• GNSS denial can cripple aviation safety, logistics, and emergency response.

4. Space Risks

• Solar storms and orbital debris can disrupt or damage GNSS satellites.

• Over-reliance on a single constellation compounds fragility.

Why Backups Are Critical

GNSS is the world’s single point of failure for PNT. Without backups:

• Aviation loses navigation accuracy and safety margins.

• Maritime trade risks collisions and delays.

• Telecoms lose precise timing, disrupting mobile handovers and internet traffic.

• Finance faces stock exchange and transaction errors.

Studies estimate that a GNSS outage could cost the US economy $1B per day.

The Case for Terrestrial Backups

eLORAN (Enhanced LORAN)

• Ground-based longwave radio navigation system.

• Extremely difficult to jam due to high signal strength.

• Provides regional coverage with 20–50 transmitters.

• Already deployed in South Korea as a GNSS backup.

High-Precision Atomic Clocks

• Embedding resilient timing sources in critical infrastructure.

• Telecom networks can maintain sync for days without GNSS.

Multi-Constellation Receivers

• Devices capable of receiving GPS, Galileo, BeiDou, GLONASS.

• Reduces reliance on any single constellation.

Hybrid AI Solutions

• Using AI to detect anomalies in GNSS signals.

• Cross-validating with inertial sensors, 5G signals, and radar.

Regional Perspectives

United States

• Department of Homeland Security designates PNT as critical infrastructure.

• Past plans for eLORAN stalled, but renewed urgency after Ukraine war.

• DARPA and private sector exploring AI-based spoofing detection.

Europe

• Galileo provides autonomy from GPS, but still vulnerable.

• EU-funded projects exploring eLORAN revival and hybrid PNT systems.

• Aviation regulators pushing for resilience requirements.

Middle East

• Gulf waters are global hotspots for GNSS interference.

• UAE and Saudi Arabia investing in GNSS monitoring systems.

• Interest in eLORAN and terrestrial PNT rising as part of sovereign resilience strategies.

Business Implications for Telecoms and Infrastructure

1. Telecom Timing Resilience

   • Mobile operators must embed GNSS backups into networks.

   • Resilient timing supports 5G, 6G, and financial transactions.

2. Aviation & Maritime Partnerships

   • Telecoms can provide resilience solutions to transport sectors.

   • Opportunities in maritime IoT and aviation safety services.

3. Government Contracts

   • Governments will procure resilient PNT for critical infrastructure.

   • Private operators positioned for partnerships.

4. New Business Models

   • Resilient PNT-as-a-Service (PNTaaS).

   • Monetisation of resilience for enterprises and smart cities.

Board-Level Takeaways

• Risk Disclosure: Boards must recognise GNSS reliance in corporate risk frameworks.

• Investment in Resilience: Cost of outages dwarfs cost of mitigation.

• Vendor Strategy: Partnerships with eLORAN providers, atomic clock vendors, and AI firms.

• Policy Engagement: Influence national strategies on GNSS resilience.

Conclusion

GNSS has become the invisible utility of the modern world — but also its Achilles’ heel. Jamming and spoofing are no longer rare; they are daily realities in conflict-prone regions.

The US, Europe, and Middle East are converging on the same conclusion: terrestrial backups are essential. Whether through eLORAN, atomic clocks, or AI hybrid solutions, the future of resilience lies in diversification.

For telecom operators, infrastructure providers, and governments, the message is clear: build redundancy before disruption becomes catastrophe.